AMITIAE - Friday 12 April 2013
Cassandra - Friday Review: The Long Weekend Arrives |
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By Graham K. Rogers
Opening GambitSongkran and water arrive in Thailand. Comments on Apple and app removals: contradiction and misapprehension. Foxconn falters, Apple must be slipping too. Samsung may not get its eyes or hands on the A7 chip. Q4 2013 shipment figures: analysts differing estimates; Apple up or down, depending on who you read. Irrelevant Microsoft Office for the iPad expected in 2014: four years after the iPad. North Korea cancels missile test due to Windows 8 problems. IRS cancels The Fourth Amendment.
Apple App Store ContradictionsOnce more this week lots of those writers who call themselves journalists jumped the gun because Apple was involved and the outline facts showed that Apple was censoring again, just like last week when an app was withdrawn from the Chinese iTunes store - no suggestion in the early reports on that, that perhaps Apple did not have a choice, in the same way that it had not when previous content (on Tibet) was withdrawn: only one writer - Steven Sande - got that.This week an apparently-explicit comic by Brian K. Vaughan was not made available on the app store and everyone jumped because it was presumed that explicit images were the cause and Apple had been censoring. As Dan Moren (and others now) notes, this had not been a problem before with the same author; and the same content was apparently available on the iBookstore (not here of course). But what had really happened is that Comixology had decided that the content might cause a problem, so had stopped the release in case. Apple does not like porn. And there are plenty of other places to find it if one is so inclined, I am told, but in context, some is permissible: take for example the works of Caravaggio or Goya and a number of famous advertisements. The CEO of Comxology put his hands up to the withdrawal and said that the company was trying to respect Apple's policies for apps; and that the intepretation they put on the work was mistaken. In his report and analysis of this, Dan Moren is OK until he gets to the part where he writes, "Given Apple's history of filtering content on the App Store, it's not surprising that the natural inclination was to assume that the company was responsible in this scenario as well." Right, it is not surprising with the current flock of blog writers who are more interested in hits than facts. Moren turns this into a diatribe against Apple's selection and review process.
The developer says he had tried to work with "contacts at the App Store" which sounds dubious to me - the sort of thing that may happen in some Asian countries - and having had it approved, it was then withdrawn. It is not good publicity for Apple of course, but it may be that we do not have all the information, especally that bit about "contacts at the App Store". The article does have a sound argument concerning the way this sort of action could be better carried out, then has the article spoiled by bringing in the Comixology conflict; but then has to correct that, diluting her original argument.
There were some good points made by all three articles, but while the ones by John Paczkowski and Jacqui Cheng examined the opposite sides of these conficts in a balanced way, Dan Moren seemed more interested in scoring points.
Other Apple StuffAn interesting rumour appeared this week from a source not known for technical predictions. MacDaily News links to an item by Mikey Campbell on claims by Morgan Stanley analyst, Katy Huberty. She suggests that, after a recent meeting at Apple, they "could debut new internet-based services as well as a 'killer app' later this year." This might fit with the often-aired rumours of streaming music or a mobile payment system; and there is always the iiRadio rumour.I have looked a great deal at what I believe may be stock manipulation, or at least a trend - like chickens in a barrel - that once someone starts tugging at Apple, the rest join in. This is perhaps defined a little better by Mal Spooner from Money whose theories are explained by Chris Umiastowski on iMore, but who disagrees with how Spooner explains the idea of "swarming". As well as disagreeing, there is one of the clearest explanations of short selling (and long selling), which I certainly found useful. Chris Umiastowski takes the view, like I do, that this may begin with some collaboration - an intent to bring the price down - but the fire is stoked by the media (desperate for hits).
Also carrying this information was an item by Neil Hughes on AppleInsider who includes some more details about Foxconn's figures, but also the same analyst's comments on iPhone implications.
Also reporting on this is Sam Oliver on AppleInsider who has some other interesting info-graphics and the news that Samsung will be picking up some of the slack with NVidia. There is another report from Brooke Crothers who also mentions that the A6 chip that Samsung makes will run its course there. A rumour that appeared in a few sources on Friday morning, including AppleBitch, was that there are "challenges surrounding the construction and manufacturing of the new iPhone 5S and the second generation iPad mini" and that this could see these products (for which we did not have a release data anyway, apart from those provided by knowing pundits) delayed. The source for this was an analyst. So this is an analyst trying to trump other analysts? If this rumour is true, then the iPhone release would have the same 12 month product cycle as it has in the past, so all that speculation was just so much hot air: generation of hits.
Also related to the Johnson exit from JCP, news from James Covert on the NewYork Post tells us that three other former Apple employees have also resigned: "Chief Operating Officer Mike Kramer, Chief Talent Officer Daniel Walker and Chief Creative Officer Mike Fisher kicked off an exodus of high-profile Johnson hires that is expected to continue in the wake of his ouster." [My link for this item was MacDaily News.]
As a related note, the next Xbox may also require an always-on connection and Lance Whitney reports that a Microsoft exec, Adam Orth, who thinks this is a good idea is apparently no longer with the company after a series of Tweets. It is not clear if he jumped or if he was pushed. After the Tweets, "Microsoft issued a public apology". Imagine the kiddies (or the dads) trying to play with the Xbox in deepest Yasothon or, come to that, some parts of Bangkok when the internet is having one of its off-days here.
Half and HalfThere were some interesting statistics released this week and some equally interesting interpretations. Mikey Campbell (among others) reports on AppleInsider about estimates from an analysis company called IDG. There are already two dangerous words there - estimates and analysis - to which I would add, "pinch of salt", or at least read the figures carefully. The article also includes figures from Gartner which (surprise, surprise) conflict.IDC estimates that sales of PCs have fallen by 14% which is more than had been expected (particularly with the release of Windows 8 - what does that suggest?). That figure is apparently an 18.3% drop compared to Q4 2012. Not just falling, but really falling. But wait, Apple shipments dropped, but less: 7.5%, some of which may be due to the iPad stealing sales (Tim Cook does not care - money in the bank, is money in the bank). On top of that, Number 1 (Apple is Number 3) HP suffered 23.7 percent negative growth year over year due to internal restructuring. How does internal restructuring affect sales of PCs on the street? Now this is where it may get interesting as while Gartner agrees more or less on PC shipments overall, while IDG saw negative growth, Gartner saw 7.4% (positive) growth with remarkably different figures of 1.65 million Macs for the quarter compared to 1.533 million that IDG reports. Other placings are the same (HP is still at 2 for Gartner) but all figures differ. Don't you just love the accuracy of analysts?
Time to roll out my "No one needs this bloatware" lesson again. I do all my writing with text editors and if anything does need formatting, Apple's TextEdit and sometimes Pages will be used. Certainly those just writing letters home and the occasional report do not need this Redmond overkill. That said, lawyers may need this to ensure circulated document copies are correct, although I recently saw two Wills that both had the same error; and engineers working in groups may need to track changes; but then some of my engineering students manage this very well with Google Docs which has the additional cachet of the cloud. Office for the iPad is largely irrelevant. There are plenty of other apps that enable users of such devices to create text files, format them and export in a number of formats. Waiting so long, yet still being unable to deliver an iOS app for what is suppposed to be one of its flagship applications, suggests that (with the damp squib of Windows 8 and falling PC sales) Microsoft is making itself unimportant to today's users. The world is not running to buy PCs, or tablets that only work with keyboards and PC software. The younger market (and a lot of older first-time users) are no longer a PC generation and Microsoft has missed that, at great peril.
Following this back, both reports link to an article on Bloomberg by Susan Decker who writes about Apple, Motorola and Google and the term, "worldwide business strategy" is used.
Other MattersIf this were April 1, I would be less surprised, but an official North Korean press agency report (we are told) has told the world that a scheduled missle test has been delayed - here comes the punch line - because of "problems with Windows 8", Andy Borrowitz on The New Yorker reports. This reads like a joke article, except that such a joke could leave the writer (and New Yorker) open to litigation. My original source for this was MacDaily News who have a choice comment.I am so dubious about this article that I checked the Korean News Agency, which has no such posting that I can see, nor on their Facebook page. Wait and see with this one.
The IRS handbook has apparently cancelled the Fourth Amendment when it comes to emails, despite case law being against this (U.S. v. Warshak) and apparently against the current thinking in the Senate.
Samsung Android Screen Sizes:
I find that rather revealing.
Local ItemsI am incommunicado this week in a big way. This is the time of the annual water throwing festival that used to be called Songkran in Thailand and, as I have for the last few years, bought supplies, came home and locked the doors (a little easier in a condo). On the way home from a rushed shopping trip - plans were changed to help a friend - I saw a couple of accidents and the statistics are sure to rise. I am bound to be disturbed by wailing sirens over the weekend. Of course, having become a hermit till early next week one of muy lights failed and I have no spare bulb for the specific type of fixture.
Late NewsA report on AppleBitch, and other sources, tells us that it is expected that Apple will have agreements in place with both Universal and Warner, for the expected iRadio service. There is no confirmation of these rumours.
Graham K. Rogers teaches at the Faculty of Engineering, Mahidol University in Thailand. He wrote in the Bangkok Post, Database supplement on IT subjects. For the last seven years of Database he wrote a column on Apple and Macs. |
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