By Graham K. Rogers

Opening Gambit

Apple Stuff

Nonetheless, Ashleigh Allsopp on MacWorld does a little analysis and thinks that clues are in the typeface (not standard Apple), which may indicate design simplicity - bear in mind that Jony Ive is now killing off skeuomorphism; secondly, the date is in Roman numerals (is this for the iWatch? - Tim Cook says nothing new before Fall); logo shape is like an iOS app icon, so is that indicative of an interface redesign, or a TV; colours - bright - could indicate new iPhone colours.

But also, she writes, the WWDC logo could indicate nothing at all.

The tickets to WWDC were sold out in a couple of minutes leaving a lot of people who should really be attending without access, apart from the video links which may only go part of the way for some. In an article from MacNN (among others), it appears that Apple is aware of the problems this may be likely to cause, so in some cases is contacting those whom it thinks really should have the chance and are offering extra tickets.

A lot of commentators were a little surprised by the extent to which Apple has changed direction in terms of using the cash reserves and with expansion of its share buy-back scheme. What surprised most was the point that Apple was going to borrow money as part of this plan. Why borrow when you have so much? Not so fast: this is how banking and investment work best; by using debt. There is that old joke that a banker is a person who will lend you money when the sun is shining, but wants it back when it starts to rain. We have some of that here as Apple's reseverves and its future outlook, mean that it is a safe bet; but more than that, by borrowing, Apple can reduce its tax. Ben Lovejoy on 9to5Mac explains how this works

I have commented a lot in recent months on the falling share prices of Apple and I put it at the door of Wall Street analysts and ovine pundits who do not understand the long-term game that Apple is in and only seek short term gains. John-Michael Bond on TUAW examines the recent erosion in margins at Apple and how this set off the latest panic with Wall Street.

He uses the analysis of Horace Dediu who puts the difference at the door of the iPhone and the iPad: the price has stayed the same, the cost of components has risen. This article was spoiled by speculation on the cheapo iPhone which I believe is unlikely to ever see the light of day, nor leave the minds of analysts.

Still the FUD keeps coming. Mikey Campbell on AppleInsider reports that an IDC survey shows that (A) Smartphone shipments outpaced feature phones in the first quarter; (B) Apple's iPhone share dipped below 20% (Steve Jobs said in 2007 they were aiming for 1%); but (C) iPhone sales increased by 6.6% to 37.4 million units, with Samsung increasing its market share by 4% to 70.7 million units.

So the Apple detractors will see in the reduced share evidence that Apple is doomed, while others may note that the market has changed and Apple sold more. What the survey does not include is margins per unit. Nor does it include throughput sales (apps, services). Also not mentioned is the number of models that each company produces.

However another report, this time from Chitika Insights, suggests that Samsung is on the back foot when it comes to tablet computers and that the "iPad share of Web traffic in North American is holding firm at 82%". Samsung has doubled their share (how many headlines will have that only?) to 4% Patently Apple reports, adding comments from Chitika that "The cause of the disparity itself could be due to differences in the user interface, or demographic differences in each tablet's existing user base." Users really like their iPads.

Which is the perfect moment to bring in an article from Electronista who report the findings of this year's J. D. Power Tablet Satisfaction Study. They report that the iPad is the best on the market and was top for the 2nd time with a perfect score in the five indicators of satisfaction. Performance was the most important, followed by ease of operation, styling and design, features, and cost.

A patent filing in Europe as discovered by Patently Apple, suggests that Apple may have the ability to create a series of future devices with the alloy called Liquidmetal. There is much detail in Jack Purcher's article and in the filing, which includes a list of products where Liquid may apply. It also outlined how Liquidmetal could provide certain future Apple products with added wear and corrosion resistance as well as true water proofing.

We are aware that Intel has a new line of processors coming and Brooke Crothers has the information that these will be released to computer makers in June of this year so expects, "a crush of desktops, laptops, convertibles, detachables, and tablets to ensue." But not from Apple. Tim Cook says no product updates until Fall, so apparently there is no immediate plan to use the Haswell.

However, Aaron Lee and Joseph Tsai of Digitimes (recently cited as a Samsung shill) report that it is expected that MacBook (sic) shipments are to grow by some 10% in the next quarter and that their source claims that "The orders in May are expected to be mainly Haswell-based models".

The article continues, ". . . Apple did not have strong notebook shipments in the first quarter" but omits the point that shipments were far better than all other PC manufacturers in a market that was depressed anyway. Take from this what you will. [My link for this was MacDaily News.]

A later report in AppleInsider that highlights the opinions of analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities suggests that Apple will announce upgrades to the MacBook Pro and MacBook Air line and suggests that Haswell processors are to be used.

There is always a chance, but this seems to copy the rumours from DigiTimes, and WWDC is never really a time when new hardware is to the fore. Indeed, Jay Yarrow on Business Insider thinks that the next big thing from Apple is to be not hardware but software. I am not sure I agree totally with his theories - with a new version of iOS to be discussed, the next iPhone will surely be mentoned, at least in passing - but a lot of analysts miss that the glue holding it all together is the software, which is pretty much what Steve Jobs said at the 2007 iPhone announcement. [My source for this was MacDaily News.]

These analysts have proved themselves to be worse than useless, especially over the iPhone replacement. We have heard, rumours about the 5S - or whatever the pundits are calling it this week - for months with definite release dates for May up to June, as well as new types, large screens, cheap versions, coloured versions, bigger cameras and all the rest from analysts who keep telling consumers (and Apple) what Apple must do. Without doubt, some consumers have put off buying the iPhone 5 because of that virtual Odborne Effect, thus limiting Apple's growth, then blaming Tim Cook for this among other evils.

Ignore the analysts, they know nothing. It is only guesswork, at best supported by a small amount of data from component suppliers, and that has been found to be false over and over again.

• Brian Topeka - Apple Is Going To Release The iPhone 5S In 'At Least' Two Screen Sizes - Business Insider 9 April;
• Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley: the iPhone 5S will have a 'killer feature' - iDownloadblog 18 March;
• Gene Munster - Analyst Predicts New iPhone 5S in June, Low-Cost iPhone in September - MacRumours 26 March
• Glen Yeung - iPhone 5S, iPhone 6 Release Date Pushed Back by Production Delays--Citi Analyst - International Business Times 23 April
• Wall Street Journal - "Apple to Begin iPhone Production This Quarter", 2 April;
• Digitimes as reported on 9to5Mac - "Apple is working to release two new iPhones in 2013 with 4-inch displays" 22 January;
• Jessica E. Lessin - A Low-Priced iPhone Awaits - Wall Stret Journal, 9 January.

Not one of those rumours was correct.

Not long ago Apple was found to have infringed on a patent owned by VirnetX and as a result changed the way iOS handled VPN connections. Steven Sande now reports that Apple may be having second thoughts on this with an "about face" on VPN apparently as a result of coming to an agreement with VirnetX. However, in an item by Mikey Campbell on AppleInsider, it appears that Apple is to appeal the original finding. Both of those reports were dated 26 April with the AppleInsider one about 2 hours earlier.

Apple has also faced some criticism over in-app purchases, mainly from parents who do not understand about controlling their offspring and allow them access to their accounts (and credit card freedom) on the App store. MacNN reports that Apple has not only tightened things uop of late, but has added a section to the app store so that people can Learn More About In-App Purchases. To access the information, open the App Store main page and in the grey area to the right, headed by App StoreQuick Links, there is the link.

One Mac that is way overdue for an update is the MacPro which is aimed at proffessionals: photography, movies and even CAD-CAM applications. Daniel Eran Dilger on Apple Insider discusses Apple's approach to the Mac Pro and the new need for a top of the line desktop computer, especially with the way enterprise markets are beginning to open to Apple with so many in business impressed with their iOS devices.

Back in the late 1980s, AutoCAD was a popular program on the Mac for engineers. With the way Windows use expanded (most people I know had pirate versions) Autodesk stopped making it for the Mac, but in recent years there were so many requests that they developed an OS X version. At the same time, Autodesk begain work on development of iOS apps and some of my favourites, such as Pixlromatic have been produced.

One of the publications dedicated to the sorts of applications that engineers and architects need for work on Macs is Architosh and this week Anthony Frausto-Robledo has an interview with Micah Dickerson, product manager for AutoCAD for Mac. One of the things to come from that is the comment that AutoCAD is "picking up adoption among the student population. We see tons and tons of downloads", but perhaps more important, "college students in CAD-using majors are adopting the Mac as their preferred computer of choice by something like 80 percent or greater" even if they are taught the subjects in a Windows-using environment.

Another point (on the second page of the interview) was that Autodesk "are finding . . . that the majority of Mac users report little or no concern about using cloud services or storing files in the cloud, as compared to Windows users" and also that half of the Mac users are using notebook computers. [My source for this was MacDaily News.]

On Friday we reported that Tim Cook had put a coffee date at Cupertino up for auction. Initially the price rose to almost $300,000, but over the weekend, AppleInsider tells us, it stands now at $560,000. One heck of a cup of coffee. This is sure to rise even more. Actually I checked on Sunday at CharityBuzz and the price was $605,000 then. Proceeds from the auction will go to The RFK Center for Justice and Human Rights.

In the meantime, Tim Cook took a trip down to Duke University where he had studied some 25 years before. He graduated from the Fuqua School of Business in 1988, I am not sure how that is pronounced, and spoke at the school's Real Conversations with Real Leaders forum, Mike Beasley reports on 9to5 Mac. There are some photographs, some tweets but as yet no video or transcript.

We heard a while back from Mayor Bloomberg that the main cause of crime in New York was the Phone. Rather than blaming Apple, the New York police set up a system in which lost and stolen phones could be traced with help from Apple and there were several arrests, as well as several happy owners.

In San Francisco, things are a little different and Chris Matyszczyk reports that the police there are going round certain areas offering to sell stolen iPhones. If the offer is accepted (no price is mentioned) the would-be buyer is arrested. Not everyone (including criminals of course) is happy about this tactic which looks to me to have something of the agent provocateur about it.

Sure, anyone would go for a cheap iPhone and this weekend a report by Twitter of a Thai border market had the iPhone 5 (with only 4 rows of apps) available for 1,400 baht. It runs Android apparently.

Once in a while I have a reader ask a question on Apple products and sometimes I can answer right away, although in most cases I may not be 100% sure, so I check on the internet first for confirmation. Topher Kessler is one of my sources for checking about problems as his resource of articles covers a lot about OS X. He also has readers who ask him about problems and he puts out a series of answers from time to time. This week, I see he answers queries on partitions, loss of space on a drive, resintalling Safari and spontaneous rebooting.

Half and Half

It was not possible simply to shut the door, so bit by bit Apple has begun to move away, with some manufacturing moving to Taiwan for example. Now Patently Apple reports that dropping Samsung as a supplier for LCD displays has hit the company and it is reported that "both the semiconductor and display panel divisions suffered revenue decreases sequentially in the first quarter." How about that. . . .

Other Matters

A more comprehensive report on this was written by Bryan Bishop on The Verge who includes a chart that really puts the differences between the Motorola demand, the Microsoft offer and the Judge's decision in context. As I mentioned in the last paragrpah Redmond's attorneys claim that on RAND patents, " Motorola violated that pact by asking far too much to use the patents in question". And now they must pay the price indeed.

A couple of weeks ago we reported on a TechDirt article about Cyberbunker, a hosting firm in Holland that the police were unable to break into (with a warrant) despite much evidence that the company was responsible for several security attacks on the web. Now Donna Tam writes that the boss of the organisation may have been detained in Spain. We may expect further developments if Sven Kamphuis really is the one arrested and he has the keys to the door (metaphorically speaking).

Graham K. Rogers teaches at the Faculty of Engineering, Mahidol University in Thailand. He wrote in the Bangkok Post, Database supplement on IT subjects. For the last seven years of Database he wrote a column on Apple and Macs.