By Graham K. Rogers

Opening Gambit

Apple FUD - Courtesy of Samsung and Others

A report last week that was carried by many sources told us that iPad mini shipments were to fall in the 2nd quarter to 10-12 million units from 13-15 million in the first quarter. As Ernie Varitmos, in a video on AppleInvestor points out, this is contained in the first brief paragraph, with no real source for the rumour, but the rest of the article is little but an advertisement for Samsung products.

Not only is he furious with the Digitimes output, but the general standard of analysts' reporting these days that takes Apple rumours at face value and adds to the general view of Wall Street that Apple is a fading star.

Having posted the comments and the view that "Digitimes is a Samsung shill", he looked at a comment from a Chinese source that apparently agrees with his comments. As Ernie asks, "Where is the credible journalism?". He also brought in the recent comments of Philip Elmer-DeWitt who highlighted the Chinese students who had been paid to knock HTC products.

The video is worth going through, not the least to view Ernie's frustration and disgust.

I want now to bring in some words I wrote a few months ago in late January when Apple was taking a real pounding in the market, even as it produced the highest profits ever: still the market analysts forced it down.

• Why would Wall Street want Apple as a Broken Company (1): The Chicken in the Barrel
• Why would Wall Street want Apple as a Broken Company (2): Repeating Themes
• Why would Wall Street want Apple as a Broken Company (3): Apple under attack

I speculated then that, with the constant attacks on Tim Cook, it was being softened up as a target. If not for takeover, this could be for enough shares to provide someone else with leverage enough to replace parts of the board, the CEO and other essential personnel, creating enough change within the corporation that it would essentially be destroyed. Who would do that? I suggested examples like Carl Icahn and even Donald Trump, not as actual movers and shakers as far as Apple is concerned, but as the type of corporate raider who could see a rich target in Apple at the right price.

Then along comes Rob Endlerle with all these themes trolled into one: Steve Jobs is irreplacable, Apple is in a downward spiral, dump Cook, and (new one this) replace the whole board.

At the back of my mind back in January I also thought of Samsung. I do not think US commentators understand Asia enough and the idea of destroying a company as a form of rather satisfying revenge, without caring for the long-term effects of what that could mean, is not impossible as a deep seated revenge trait. Koreans are rather strong-willed when it comes to what they want, or what gives them the greatest advantage (look at Kim Jong-un - who has been remarkably quiet since Boston).

Sure they cloned Apple products: why wouldn't they? [You should try convincing Asians that they have plagiarised: "I read that, now I know it".] Short term, that was to their best advantage; long term, fight it in the courts and win, hence the dibelief and anger when Samsung didn't. In the background they might have been tempted to set plans in progress that weaken Apple little by little by little.

Adding to this, CBS got it even more wrong by saying that sources suggest, "iPad mini unit sales could drop 20 percent to 30 percent this quarter, compared with the same period last year" but as John Moltz points out, there was no last year.

One of the good guys mentioned above is Philip Elmer-DeWitt who also reports on the views of a number of analysts who are not even waiting for the quarterly figures to be announced this week - they believe it will not be good, so are already plunging the knives in - but are looking forward to June and a continuing low outloook.

Reading the summaries, it appears that an awful lot are buying into the negative rumors and the supply chain redutions, without real confirmation: indeed one or two of these expert Wall Street analysts would rather trust DigiTimes. And you want to trust them with investment advice?

Note also the report I covered on Friday from "AppleInsider that appears negative (originating from Digitimes). It tells us that Apple has stopped placing component orders and is thought to be appearing less aggressive looking forward. Unless of course this signals a series of new lines being prepared." Or more Samsung FUD. Will we ever trust DigiTimes again?

Also called out on figures, is Henry Blodget by Horace Dediu no less. In a Twitter exchange that appeared to suggest Verizon iPhone sales had fallen by 33%, Dediu says the comment is false. There is a sort of deer in headlights reaction from Blodget and as Horace Dediu piles it on, there is a feeble reply, then nothing.

And in contrast to those reports is news from MacNN that for AT&T and Verizon that "all new growth in the past two years from both carriers has come as a result of the iPhone." Which does not exactly square with what Blodget wrote.

So much FUD.

• See also this week's usual Cassandra column with comments and thoughts on other parts of the IT industry.

Graham K. Rogers teaches at the Faculty of Engineering, Mahidol University in Thailand. He wrote in the Bangkok Post, Database supplement on IT subjects. For the last seven years of Database he wrote a column on Apple and Macs.