AMITIAE - Monday 18 March 2013


Cassandra - Monday Review: It Will Soon be Friday


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By Graham K. Rogers


Cassandra


Opening Gambit:

New iPhone, new iWatch, new decisions. The eroticism of Apple's cash: Wall Street's slavering anticipation. Apple, patents, trademarks and class action suits: speakers, the Mexican iFone and the Retina display. Updates sometimes stretch a computer's weak points. CCTV pays stars to say bad things about Apple. A new Samsung phone thing: good for Apple; bad for Apple; depends on what you read. Backstabbing and copycatting. Samsung disses Microsoft too. Surface and Windows 8 not living up to expectations. Swatting attack on security journalist. Complacent DTAC: time for a change in carrier.


Apple Stuff

Another day, another analyst drops Apple's share price. Neil Hughes on AppleInsider reports that a Wall Street pundit has been reading the tea leaves and thinks supply chain reports suggest a new iPhone is on the way and Apple will not reach the higher guidance figures it suggested, so has dropped his target price. Note that in the article Hughes mentions Tim Cook's specific warning against reading too much into supply chain figures, but normal rules do not apply to Wall Street; nor to Apple.


We keep hearing laments from Wall Street and others about Apple's cash. No one has been able to take their eye off this since it was approaching $100 billion and now it is way past that. One can almost sense the sleepless nights and wringing of hands as Gollum-like the analysts collectively sigh, "Wants it".

A portfolio manager named Bill Miller says that Apple is about to do something big [my italics] with "some of the cash pile" [an emotive use of pile suggesting it is just sitting around]. Cadie Thompson reports for CNBC (with a video) that the portfolio manager of Legg Mason Capital Management seems to massage his connections with Apple ("I talked to them about this a few weeks ago. . . .") in making this claim. One can almost imagine slavering and licking of lips. [My link for this was MacDaily News.]


One more time: Apple is being sued for using a patent that someone else is claiming as their own. Onlhy this time, the claim is made by THX, a company founded by George Lucas. The patent is for "Narrow profile speaker configurations and systems" and this is what we have in iOS devices. Mikey Campbell reporting on AppleInsider suggests that there are some similarities, and adds the new iMac speaker systems. Also mentioned are a number of speaker system patents that Apple has. This may come down to discussions, licensing, or the courts.

From Patents to trademarks (I am teaching about this later in the week, so this is useful): a short while back there was a problem with the iPad name in China which was solved by cash; and then there was the ownership of the iPhone name in Brazil, which was solved; and now, in Mexico, the Supreme Court there has decided that the name "iFone" is owned by a company there, Mikey Campbell reports on AppleInsider, and has been using it since it was registered in 2003 (4 years before Apple's iPhone). There is a difference, as this is a service and not a product, and Apple will have to pay up here.

There is also a class action lawsuit on the Retina display MacBook Pro and its ghosting issues which i mentioned on Friday when a student contacted me. An article on this from Casey Johnson on this matter makes the interesting point that displays come from Samsung and LG but only the displays from one of these (LG perhaps) have the problem.


Almost forgotten in the removal of Scott Forestall a few months ago when Tim Cook showed who is really in charge at Apple, was the dismissal of John Browett whose performance had been brought into question in a number of articles, especially over the changes to the way staff at the retail stores were treated. Nothing to do with his performance, he claims, as reported by MacNN (and a number of other sources), his leaving the company was because his face did not fit: "fit rather than competency" he says.


Although I had no problems with the 10.8.3 update that arrived late last week, others were not so lucky. Updates will often push a computer and seek out its weaknesses. A user in Phuket suddenly found that the Finder was reporting almost no disk space left, so I made some suggestions about repair utilities. He wrote that he was using Cocktail, but this was not fixing things. He went deeper with the Single-user startup and the Unix fsck command, which he ran three times. He reported no problems, but when he restarted found another 12 GB of space was available, which suggested to me some corruption.

To check further, he tried a Safe startup (hold down the Shift key), but that did not work: suggesting other problems. He has downloaded the Combo update to install over the top of the recent download, but is really looking to make a clean install. He did not do this when he bought the machine in the US a few months ago and is regretting this now. As it is a spare, with all data backed up on external sources, he is not going to waste too much time.

Also having problems was a Bangkok user who seems to have pushed his 5-year old iMac to the brink. His MacBook Pro was OK. He reports that he did all the usual to try and bring the iMac back to working life, like the combo download, a wipe of the disk and reinstall, nvram/pram reset, disk chk; but nothing is working and all he gets is a white screen. Like the Phuket user I would suggest Disk Warrior, but neither user has this. While the Bangkok man tells me that the SMART report in Disk Utility suggests all is OK, this has all the flavour of a failed hard disk: the OS update probably pushed it over the edge. Other Bangkok users also reported iMac problems. I have yet to update mine at the office.


As a side note, MacNN reports that following the 10.8.3 update, Apple also released an update to Xcode, which is now at version 4.6.1. The article reports that this update includes, "new features including better compiler warnings, deeper cross-function static analysis of Objective-C and C++ code," as well as more (see the article for the list).


I have mentioned the Kickstarter projects a couple of times and one of the projects I backed (modestly) let me have some of the first issue Mobi Lens system products. This weekend an article from Chris Oldroyd on iMore alerted me to a new charger system that uses a handle to generate power for the iPhone, much like the Trevor Baylis windup radio.

I could not resist this, so clicked on the link and made my investment, plus $15 for mailing. The Kickstarter site, links its payment system to Amazon where I have an account, so signing up for the charger was done in a couple of minutes. The project funding closes in 38 days and is already way-oversubscribed, so will probably fly.


Half and Half

Late Sunday evening I read a report by Liz Carter on TeaLeafNation - with what appears to be a screen shot provided by local writer, Jon Russell - concerning a program on CCTV (the Chinese network) in which there was an apparent exposé on Apple, causing thousands of complaints. However, it was soon revealed that CCTV had paid celebrities to post anti-Apple remarks. This came out as Samsung star spokesman, Peter Ho, made a posting that seems to suggest all was not above board. He denied it and claimed his phone had been stolen, but failed to delete the damning part of the message, the instruction, "Post around 8:20." Although people started posting criticisms, these were quickly censored. [My source for this was MacDaily News.]


At the end of last week the Korean clone company, sometimes called Samsung, released its new Galaxy S4 to mixed reports. And I use the term, "mixed" advisedly. Depending on what one reads this is Apple's death knell or the device that will save Apple. Mind you, there were lots of negatives on all sides about the presentation itself, with some referring to the infamous Padfone intro; and also discussing the classlessness of the presentation.

Discussing the hype, Neil Hughes on AppleInsider suggests that this is not a game-changer for Apple and cites Gene Munster and Brian White of Topeka on this, but I was amazed to read White's comment, "We are amazed by how analysts and the media have turned on Apple during the recent stock downdrafts with statements that Samsung is 'out-innovating' Apple" as White is not untarnished by this either. Munster added, that it is "unlikely to meaningfully impact iPhone share of the high-end over the full year, but do expect it to take share from other Android phones"

It is not only the normal pundits who are commenting on this device as Koreans, who are normally partisan and hate the iPhone because Apple is the enemy, are also making lots of negative noises, Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports on Fortune. Patently Apple is also somewhat critical of Samsung sugesting that its backstabbing and copycatting traits are in its DNA, adding "when Samsung's leadership has to stoop to the level of actually robbing Apple's philosophy it truly demonstrates just how twisted and deluded they've become of late."

A comprehesive and balanced examination of the event - and of the phone - was provided by Rene Ritchie on iMore and this is well worth taking time over. He ends with the sage comment on smartphones that "They're already almost all great. Now everyone is trying to make them better." On that note, it was not really a surprise to see the attention-grabbing headline from Matt Honan on Wired that the S4 is "Completely Amazing and Utterly Boring". The show was absurd, the phone is delightful, but it is a smartphone and all smartphones are boring; and at the end he manages to bring in the iWatch and Google Glass. Maybe some tech journalists should get out and about a bit more.

On 9to5 Mac, Jordan Kahn looks at the various opinions of Apple analysts and their "wild insights" including Gene Munster and Peter Misek from Jefferies: the former thought it was not bad for Apple but expects the iWatch to launch next year (I don't quite see the connection); while Misek thinks it will be "incrementally negative for Apple". Shaw Wu lowered his price, while Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities tells us that the cheapo iPhone will be coming soon. A fair supply of tea leaves and chicken entrail readings there.

Also writing on the effect this launch will have on Apple is Charles Cooper who suggests that Apple shareholders will be saying thank you (the shares did rise a bit) as after all the waiting for the device he says that it is nothing for Apple to worry about. Was it ever? Only in the minds of analysts and pundits perhaps.

And then right away (I am choosing the order to highlight the absurdity), Lorraine Luk on Digits - a Wall Street Journal source - writes that "analysts are saying it's likely to snatch more market share from Apple" (using the same analysts as others - above) and thus, she argues, this will put pressure on Apple's Asian supliers. And then . . . AND THEN, "The only hope for Apple and its suppliers is the possible launch of a low-cost iPhone". The only hope? Perhaps the only hope for Lorraine Luk to get enough hits. What has she been taking? Anyone reading that without an understanding of the size (or potential) of Apple would think the company were in a state of imminent collapse.


While we are on the Samsung S4 launch, Sam Byford on The Verge reports that the CEO was not all that complimentary towards Microsoft and its tablet thing. It has reduced dependence on Windows and is reported to be decreasing its dependence on Android [before taking over the world].

That fits well with a report from Ian King and Dina Bass on Bloomberg who report on the relatively low sales figures for the Surface and the device along with the latest version of Windows, that are falling short on predictions (which MC Siegler wrote about a couple of weeks back).


I use the Macsurfer site a fair amount: not only for finding out about what it being written, but to submit the articles I write for my website. I have been doing this since the time I wrote for the Bangkok Post and have an email chat relationship with the guys who run the site. On Sunday morning I had an email from someone whom I do not know who told me that I should add him to the mailing list for article submissions. I am awary of any unsolicited emails, so checked the site. Nothing. I wrote to the MacSurfer guys and later in the day a reply confirmed that, indeed, this was right. Duly added.


An interesting development occurred over the weekend when many sources, including Lex Friedman on MacWorld, reported that Dropbox had acquired Mailbox. I use the Dropbox synchronisations daily but not Mailbox. It will be interesting to see how Dropbox integrate this into their services. I notice several positive noises, mainly via Tweets, on this.


Other Matters

I like to keep up to date with security matters and read on Friday in an item by Seth Rosenblatt, about what is called a swatting attack. This is not something that happens to your computer, but happens to you when someone makes a false call to the police and a SWAT team descends on the house. This happened to Brian Krebs, whose articles I have cited in Cassandra on occasion as he has a good knowledge of security and systems. He was actually expecting this to happen as he had upset some hackers and they seem to have exacted revenge. Anyone writing online is likely to attract nutcases from time to time (believe me) and their warped views take priority. Krebs got out of this without any harm and I am sure efforts are being made right now to track down the criminals.


More security news from Mike Masnick on TechDirt who reports on the nasty world of National Security Letters. These (in the USA) are documents that allow law enforcement to demand data from service providers and act as a gag order, "blocking people from talking about the letters". Last year a telco was sued by the DoJ for "daring to question whether or not NSLs were legal", but the DoJ seems to have shot itself in the foot as we are told that a "federal court has ruled that national security letters (NSLs) are unconstitutional, and banned their use". So there.

Of course, the government is going to appeal.


Local items

For the fourth time in recent weeks I went to the Siam Discovery Center in central Bangkok where I have a set routine: clean teeth ater lunch, sit on Floor 4 opposite iStudio, catch up with podcasts, check email, look at other internet stuff. However, once again, I found that there was no 3G and that the wifi signal was so poor that it was useless. I was left with EDGE and checking out music I have just heard on the iTunes store with these speeds is like having your legs broken.

I phoned DTAC again. This was the third time, but while other staff had been polite, this young lady was a bit snappy, ignoring the point that these are continuing faults and that the customer is not getting the service. Indeed, when I mentioned the wifi I was told that I had to phone another number. I was left with the feeling that this was my fault. I mean, I know it wasn't but some help calls don't help.

At home I wondered about calling again, but decided to email DTAC and also posted on Facebook where I had a number of useful comments, including the suggestion that it may well be time for a change. My colleague from work who wrote that is perhaps biased as his wife works for True, but there was a clear difference in pricing and currently I am paying for services that are not there.

I had a boiler-plate reply from DTAC a couple of hours later, apologising for the inconvenience and adding that the problem will be forwarded to the engineer team for checking as soon as possible. Which is what the nice person told me when I phoned three weeks earlier.


Not that True gets off lightly this time as they decided to block some of the extra channels I had been using for the last few weeks. Most notable were the couple of BBC channels that have some useful programs (apart from that awful Torchwood). At least I can still watch Top Gear.

Trying to find what I could still access using that iPad app that True now have instead of a real TV guide made me realise how limited a tablet device is for certain reading functions. Books are fine - indeed I have used the iPhone for some reading of ebooks - but trying to map out wide areas of data, such as the spreadsheet of TV programs is, does not make life easy. You can get the news on a device, but it is nothing like standing up, reading the double pages of a broadsheet newspaper spread out on a table.


Graham K. Rogers teaches at the Faculty of Engineering, Mahidol University in Thailand. He wrote in the Bangkok Post, Database supplement on IT subjects. For the last seven years of Database he wrote a column on Apple and Macs.


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